Sunday, November 4, 2007

Backgammon - True Probabilities!

By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Ralf_Guven]Ralf Guven When you read other articles about backgammon dice roll probabilities you will notice an approach of accepting "2+1" and "1+2" as two different possibilities! But I don't like this way of thinking, in my point of view these two results are very same. It's only a situation when one dice comes "1" and the other "2", 1 on left dice, 2 on right dice, or 1 on red dice, 2 on the blue one! But when you say loudly the number to play is 2 and 1, thats it! Backgammon is not a game that you play with left dice and right dice separately, it's a game that you play by the result of two dices. So I consider them like values to play "1 and 2" or "3" which also mean two possibilities, but in a different way. This is important when you consider "5+4" as "5 and 4" or "9"; also double6 as "12" or "18" or "24"! And in my way too, there are 36 possibilities: 6 different doubles, 15 combinations, and 15 sums of 2 dices! So when you are obliged to leave a blot (a single or weak checker) try to avoid positions attainable by 6, then 4, then 5 and 3. And prefer 7 to 8! Check the followings to find out why! Double numbers: 6 Double 1 means 4 times 1; or 1, 2, 3, 4 Double 2 means 4 times 2; or 2, 4, 6, 8 Double 3 means 4 times 3; or 3, 6, 9, 12 Double 4 means 4 times 4; or 4, 8, 12, 16 Double 5 means 4 times 5; or 5, 10, 15, 20 Double 6 means 4 times 6; or 6, 12, 18, 24 Possible combinations: 30 1 + 2 = 1, 2, or 3 1 + 3 = 1, 3, or 4 1 + 4 = 1, 4, or 5 2 + 3 = 2, 3, or 5 1 + 5 = 1, 5, or 6 2 + 4 = 2, 4, or 6 1 + 6 = 1, 6, or 7 2 + 5 = 2, 5, or 7 3 + 4 = 3, 4, or 7 2 + 6 = 2, 6, or 8 3 + 5 = 3, 5, or 8 3 + 6 = 3, 6, or 9 4 + 5 = 4, 5, or 9 4 + 6 = 4, 6, or 10 5 + 6 = 5, 6, or 11 Probability of numbers that you may get in 100 rolls: 1 = 9 times 2 = 10 times 3 = 11 times 4 = 12 times 5 = 11 times 6 = 13 times 7 = 03 times 8 = 04 times 9 = 03 times 10 = 02 times 11 = 01 time 12 = 03 times 15 = 01 time 16 = 01 time 18 = 01 time 20 = 01 time 24 = 01 time Percentage (in 100 rolls): % 10.35 for "1" % 11.49 for "2" % 12.64 for "3" % 13.79 for "4" % 12.64 for "5" % 14.94 for "6" % 03.45 for "7" % 04.60 for "8" % 03.45 for "9" % 02.30 for "10" % 01.15 for "11" % 03.45 for "12" and % 01.15 for "15","16","18","20" and "24" About the Author: Ralf Guven is the founder partner of [http://www.vitalinfocenter.com/]Vitalinfocenter.com since 2000 and an expert of Backgammon. To find out more tips, tricks, strategies and information on how to play better backgammon visit [http://www.vitalinfocenter.com/bckgmn/bgindex.html]Backgammon Tips & Advice. Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Ralf_Guven [http://ezinearticles.com/?Backgammon---True-Probabilities!&id=485741 ]http://EzineArticles.com/?Backgammon---True-Probabilities!&id=485741 buy ambien without a prescription overnight delivery
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